Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 83668.866902 88305.260104 92939.079843 97914.535182 103102.256354 108348.469943 114051.474310
2025-01-05 76184.093406 83296.097635 90601.981389 98657.626317 107280.246545 116222.469098 126186.610887
2025-01-12 70373.919379 79138.213954 88339.153413 98697.328247 110011.837989 121973.949190 135554.888613
2025-01-19 65722.070641 75687.174262 86341.843231 98546.285435 112103.022480 126663.698003 143448.191199
2025-01-26 63218.419698 74300.806724 86336.013178 100325.108480 116084.283996 133234.278088 153253.644145
2025-02-02 61120.025468 73162.038333 86423.140894 102039.345665 119851.625935 139460.963447 162603.979515
2025-02-09 58744.908841 71536.178891 85807.161247 102817.102153 122442.980355 144278.909067 170309.456562
2025-02-16 56095.656893 69441.414799 84517.277729 102693.892986 123894.000860 147716.952790 176383.369450
2025-02-23 54083.468490 67980.393153 83860.698839 103210.643032 126004.165523 151850.845680 183218.018365
2025-03-02 52007.263885 66341.836324 82904.924559 103292.238347 127535.888533 155264.438313 189187.005747
2025-03-09 50753.303730 65623.217461 82979.898096 104541.709711 130402.453885 160210.838514 196942.090389
2025-03-16 48686.230811 63831.697703 81694.736913 104095.220060 131196.642094 162681.341009 201761.844168
2025-03-23 47736.773724 63401.001896 82054.805701 105650.813329 134427.878255 168100.438444 210175.339039
2025-03-30 46528.967758 62604.173104 81933.084176 106595.599648 136913.226392 172641.712176 217579.189152
2025-04-06 44968.080844 61304.861176 81140.826530 106671.647816 138307.476714 175855.159261 223389.810911
2025-04-13 43392.726264 59929.562263 80202.042828 106518.213848 139381.404166 178656.056586 228692.345053
2025-04-20 42880.282302 59890.711363 80917.314210 108413.439535 142979.433095 184533.476381 237759.570812
2025-04-27 42371.625601 59830.699620 81586.249533 110238.282235 146489.300579 190316.846997 246745.654755
2025-05-04 41445.237312 59189.859798 81486.134674 111066.016687 148738.605204 194550.227318 253845.624432
2025-05-11 40145.231537 58013.923818 80661.110042 110934.924870 149754.376827 197243.409740 259043.338565
2025-05-18 39203.177864 57283.362735 80384.847289 111484.798788 151616.420707 200983.118857 265548.555004
2025-05-25 38111.869348 56317.958519 79771.717753 111571.621596 152868.036941 203950.188833 271094.090205
2025-06-01 37583.163813 56096.537702 80120.874024 112901.026943 155710.485208 208924.148980 279178.387499